Indian National Congress, its heir apparent, and Indian politics

 Indian National Congress, Its Heir Apparent, and Indian Politics


Congress party’s debacle in the recently concluded state elections was on expected lines for many independent observers like me who watch politics from a distance.  The party, which governed India, like always, baring few aberrations here and there, is today struggling to survive.

To begin with, during post-independence era, Congress ruled the country without a hitch because of lack of credible opposition.  The sympathy wave post deaths of its leaders too brought it back to power twice.  It faced real opposition only in the late 70s. Then, the only instance when the opposition was able to complete its full term was from 1998 to 2004 when Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee became the prime minister and completed its full term.  Therefore, by and large, Congress really had its way when it came to ruling the country.

The Nehru-Gandhi family has had always been the glue of the party, and things have always revolved around it.  This has encouraged sycophancy, which in turn has made the party vulnerable to management problems like poor decision making.

Some musty decisions taken in the near past have cost the party heavily.  This took away all the goodwill it enjoyed during UPA1.  The staleness was evident when Congress party announced quota for Muslims of UP.  Muslims understood their fallacious intent and completely shunned the Congress party.  Nevertheless, UP campaign of the party was very aggressive, but without genuineness and was always viewed with a doubt by the UP voter.  Instead an honest appeal to the voters without any political posturing could have garnered them more votes.  In fact, Mr. Rahul Gandhi would have done much better without Digvijay Singh and Salman Khurshid in UP. 

Sycophants usually lack talent and leadership qualities.  Look around any Gandhi and you will see people with zero mass appeal. This style of functioning has created a void between its voters and central leadership. The void became so deep and wide that The Gandhis couldn’t save their own turf.

Another issue Congress has is lethargy.  They take ages to take decisions.  UPA-1 in its common minimum program promised to spent 6% on education and 2-3% on healthcare.  Other issues like administrative reforms, judicial reforms, panchayati raj, women reservation, separate Telangana state have been in limbo, even after eight long years.

Dynastic politics, due to its very existence at the top, is something that Congress has not been able to discourage in the party. This has also alienated the voters.  Goa is a classic example of this with 11 out of 40 seats went to few families of Congress members.  This made voters angry, and they aggressively voted against the party.

Congress party’s heir apparent, Mr. Rahul Gandhi, should start doing things on his own and stop taking advice from others.  After all, he is in his 40s and can understand good versus evil.  He should take control, come out in the open, deal with the issues head on, make some mistakes, and learn from them.  He should brew his own ideas instead of following others.  He should think and should act like a leader if he wishes to be one.

Congress might face tough times going forward.  BJP, on the other hand, doesn’t look very strong and therefore we may not see coalition politics ending very soon, ahh!  What a pity?

Why BJP is still not the party of the poor?

 

 

  Why BJP is still not the party of the poor?

Bhartiya Janata Party, after thirty-plus years of existence, has still not been able to win hearts of the masses especially the rural poor of India.  We can argue that many urban poor vote for the BJP, but largely BJP is considered a party of the middle class, which in its own right is not a voter group and is certainly not bankable especially in view of the BJP's loss in the last election and the very recent Anna Hazare fiasco.  The middle class voter is deceptive and therefore limits the chances of BJP doing well in the next general election.  BJP badly needs something that could turn the poor in their favor.

Now let us analyze why poor do not vote for the BJP on a relative basis.

If we take a look at the regional parties, they seem to be doing far better than BJP even though they are fairly young.  Parties like BSP and SP from Uttar Pradesh, JD(U) in Bihar, BJD in Odisha have a fantastic rural voter base.  Tamil Nadu with different political dynamics also has parties with good rural base.  We can debate that these parties are regional and therefore are able to touch base with their voters quickly and effectively than the national party like BJP.  In a sense, regional parties have made it difficult for national party like BJP to penetrate in rural areas.

Another reason for this could be that it had been in power at the center for just 6-7 years and hence has not been able to make any goodwill among the rural voters.

BJP's central leadership is also partly responsible for this as well.  Other than the legendary Atal Bihari Vajpayee, none of their central leaders has impressed the masses.  Leaders like L. K. Advani, Sushma Swaraj, and Arun Jaitley spend more time in criticizing the Congress Party and Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh instead of reaching out to the poor and trying to woo them.  Has anybody seen L. K. Advani, Sushma Swaraj, or Arun Jaitley making a deliberate attempt to attract them?  I do not think so.

They have never talked about rural issues in a big way, have never announced any rural welfare scheme when in power, and have never even sounded caring about their problems.

Though I must agree some of their schemes like Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana are very good and have benefited the rural population, but their impact in converting votes is questionable.  They should do more to strike a cord with the “aam admi.”

By repeatedly using the word “Kamjor,” (kamjor pradhan mantri, kamjor Lokpal bill) they are sounding boring to many.  “Aap me kitana jor hai voh logon ko dikhaye na”

The ruling Congress Party has a strong rural base obviously because of its long history.  It also has expressed intent to do things for the poor and implemented schemes like farm loan waiver, NREGA, etc.  Although many of these schemes are marred with large scale corruption and are not more than a temporary relief,  these welfare schemes reflect well in the eyes of rural voter and that translates into votes for the Congress.

BJP should learn from Bihar Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar who has managed to impress the masses by implementing innovative welfare schemes.  He has done well so far and has been able to throw a mass leader like Lalu Yadav out of power.

BJP has not yet succeeded in getting votes of this section of society.  If BJP wants to come back to power in the next general election, they need to expand their voter base.  After all, 60-70% of India still lives in the rural area.  There is reasonable amount of time (2-3 years) still left for them to get their act together and focus on expanding their voter base.  Otherwise, I am not a psephologist, but their fortune might not change in a hurry.