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Bhartiya Janata Party, after thirty-plus years of existence, has still not been able to win hearts of the masses especially the rural poor of India. We can argue that many urban poor vote for the BJP, but largely BJP is considered a party of the middle class, which in its own right is not a voter group and is certainly not bankable especially in view of the BJP's loss in the last election and the very recent Anna Hazare fiasco. The middle class voter is deceptive and therefore limits the chances of BJP doing well in the next general election. BJP badly needs something that could turn the poor in their favor.
Now let us analyze why poor do not vote for the BJP on a relative basis.
If we take a look at the regional parties, they seem to be doing far better than BJP even though they are fairly young. Parties like BSP and SP from Uttar Pradesh, JD(U) in Bihar, BJD in Odisha have a fantastic rural voter base. Tamil Nadu with different political dynamics also has parties with good rural base. We can debate that these parties are regional and therefore are able to touch base with their voters quickly and effectively than the national party like BJP. In a sense, regional parties have made it difficult for national party like BJP to penetrate in rural areas.
Another reason for this could be that it had been in power at the center for just 6-7 years and hence has not been able to make any goodwill among the rural voters.
BJP's central leadership is also partly responsible for this as well. Other than the legendary Atal Bihari Vajpayee, none of their central leaders has impressed the masses. Leaders like L. K. Advani, Sushma Swaraj, and Arun Jaitley spend more time in criticizing the Congress Party and Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh instead of reaching out to the poor and trying to woo them. Has anybody seen L. K. Advani, Sushma Swaraj, or Arun Jaitley making a deliberate attempt to attract them? I do not think so.
They have never talked about rural issues in a big way, have never announced any rural welfare scheme when in power, and have never even sounded caring about their problems.
Though I must agree some of their schemes like Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana are very good and have benefited the rural population, but their impact in converting votes is questionable. They should do more to strike a cord with the “aam admi.”
By repeatedly using the word “Kamjor,” (kamjor pradhan mantri, kamjor Lokpal bill) they are sounding boring to many. “Aap me kitana jor hai voh logon ko dikhaye na”
The ruling Congress Party has a strong rural base obviously because of its long history. It also has expressed intent to do things for the poor and implemented schemes like farm loan waiver, NREGA, etc. Although many of these schemes are marred with large scale corruption and are not more than a temporary relief, these welfare schemes reflect well in the eyes of rural voter and that translates into votes for the Congress.
BJP should learn from Bihar Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar who has managed to impress the masses by implementing innovative welfare schemes. He has done well so far and has been able to throw a mass leader like Lalu Yadav out of power.
BJP has not yet succeeded in getting votes of this section of society. If BJP wants to come back to power in the next general election, they need to expand their voter base. After all, 60-70% of India still lives in the rural area. There is reasonable amount of time (2-3 years) still left for them to get their act together and focus on expanding their voter base. Otherwise, I am not a psephologist, but their fortune might not change in a hurry.
